Logic of Military Intelligence Failures

This monograph addresses the research question: are military intelligence failures inevitable? If so, what are the causes and effects of intelligence failures and how can these causes and effects be mitigated or minimized in order to contain the degree of ramifications. The desire to explore this research question is twofold: (1) understand the effects of consequences in which military intelligence failures create unfavorable conditions for the conduct of military operations and (2) identify remedies for military intelligence failures. The methodology for this research consists of a thorough literature review on the characteristics of military intelligence failures as well as lessons learned from historical military intelligence failures, military blunders, or military misfortunes. The Easter Offensive in Vietnam 1972 and the Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait in 1990 served as case studies. Analysis of available literature was sufficient for making generalizations of the causes and effects of military intelligence failures to provide recommendations on how to mitigate or reduce the variables of military intelligence failures. The purpose is to provide objective analysis for policymakers/decisionmakers to take action. There is a need to recognize the implications of military intelligence failures in relation to military operations and take aggressive actions in order to eliminate or minimize such failures. The genesis of military intelligence failures is often linked to the interpretation of intelligence and how intelligence is used. That is why there must be emphasis on education and training of intelligence analysts as well as users of intelligence. Intelligence analysis is fundamentally a mental process; therefore, analysts need to know how to better understand, influence, and guide their mental processes. Policymakers/decisionmakers must also recognize their role in guiding the intelligence process in order to obtain objective analysis in time to develop a plan against i