Demographic and Economic Impact of Turkish Labor Migration to the EU

Since Turkey and EC had signed the Ankara Agreement in 1963, Turkey has been waiting to join the EU. Even though an eventual membership had been envisioned along with the liberalization of free movement of goods, capital and labor between Turkey and the EU, Turkish EU membership is still a highly debated subject. Despite that Turkey has joined the Customs Union in 1995 and started the accession negotiations in 2005, there are many thorny economic issues to be addressed. Freedom of movement for workers is one of the hardest chapters that will be negotiated in the acquis communautaire. Many skeptics in the EU object to Turkish membership citing that EU countries would be flooded by Turkish workers, exacerbate the unemployment and exhaust the stretched welfare systems. The attempt of this study is to analyze the impact of potential scenarios of Turkish membership to the EU on the labor migration trends to selected EU countries. This study should help shed light on demographic implications and understand the driving factors of Turkish labor migration to the EU and should be useful to policy makers and researchers in the EU Enlargement and EU-Turkey relations.