Critical Infrastructure Portfolio Selection Model

This thesis proposes and demonstrates a methodology that enables the user to generate optimal portfolios of projects, based largely on the data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach developed by Israeli professors and industrial engineers, Harel Eilat, Boaz Golany, and Avraham Shtub. The purpose of this methodology, known as the Critical Infrastructure Portfolio Selection Model, is to help policy makers prioritize the allocation of resources while working towards the achievement of short and long term security objectives via the construction, security, and maintenance of critical infrastructure. In order to achieve this end, this thesis modifies the approach developed by Eilat, et al. and applies it to the restoration of essential services and reconstruction of critical infrastructure components within a stability operations environment. The Critical Infrastructure Portfolio Selection Model facilitates this prioritization effort by evaluating a project's ability to transform inputs (budget amounts) into meaningful outputs which are directly linked to strategic measures of effectiveness. The Critical Infrastructure Portfolio Selection Model also offers a holistic and balanced approach to the reconstruction challenge by explicitly incorporating infrastructure project interdependencies and probabilities of project success into the mathematical model by using the concepts of critical node analysis and reliability theory demonstrated by the renowned computer scientist and infrastructure protection expert, Dr. Ted Lewis.